Ethiopia fighting escalates as TPLF and federal army clash

What triggered the recent surge in Ethiopia fighting?

The latest escalation in hostilities began on Wednesday, centered primarily in the Amhara region near the border with Tigray. According to the Ethiopian army, the conflict erupted when Tigrayan forces and their allies launched attacks that were subsequently repelled by federal troops. The military claims to have successfully seized weapons and inflicted significant casualties on the opposing side during these initial encounters.

While the federal government has issued statements regarding these clashes, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has not yet provided an official comment on the army's specific claims. This lack of verified information is compounded by the fact that independent media outlets, including the BBC, are currently unable to report directly from Tigray or its surrounding areas to confirm the military's assertions.

The role of regional alliances

The current instability is linked to a significant political shift that occurred on Sunday, when the TPLF announced a formal alliance with six other armed groups. This coalition aims to oust the current federal government, marking a transition from localized tension to a broader organized opposition. This alliance has fundamentally altered the security landscape, moving the conflict away from a bilateral dispute toward a multi-front confrontation involving various regional interests.

How has the TPLF expanded its control?

Tigrayan forces have successfully seized control of three key airports from federal police, a move that has significantly disrupted regional logistics and travel. In the city of Mekelle, residents reported that local forces took over the airport early on Wednesday. This strategic seizure of aviation infrastructure has had immediate consequences for the region's connectivity and economy.

The impact on civil aviation was immediate. Following the takeover of these facilities, Ethiopian Airlines cancelled all flights to Tigray to ensure the safety of its passengers and crew. This shutdown of airspace effectively isolates the region, complicating both civilian movement and potential humanitarian relief efforts. While some reports suggest drone strikes occurred in Tigray in the days leading up to these events, the specific details of these strikes remain unconfirmed by independent sources.

What is the current military situation in neighboring regions?

Unconfirmed reports indicate that the fighting is not contained solely to the Tigray-Amhara border but is spreading into the Afar region. Humanitarian sources have provided accounts of heavy artillery being used in these areas as Tigrayan forces attempt to secure strategic locations.

• Afar Region: A humanitarian source in Afar told AFP on Thursday that Tigrayan forces launched heavy artillery attacks during an attempt to take control of the town of Yallo, located near the Tigray border.
• Amhara Region: Hostilities have been reported in areas close to the Tigrayan border, where the federal army claims to be actively engaged in repelling incursions.
• Mekelle: Despite the broader conflict, some residents in the Tigrayan capital have described the city as relatively calm compared to the previous war, noting that most intense fighting is occurring in the periphery.

The phrase "We are in the situation of full-blown war now," was used by TPLF vice-president Amanuel Assefa in a statement to the AFP news agency, reflecting the gravity of the current military posture.

What is the humanitarian and economic impact on civilians?

The outbreak of fighting has created an environment of extreme distress for civilians, characterized by movement restrictions and severe economic instability. In Mekelle, residents described a sense of being under a de facto curfew, with people limiting their movements due to the volatility of the situation.

Economic hardship is exacerbating the physical dangers of the conflict. For several months, the federal government has allegedly been withholding budgets from civil servants, leading to a critical shortage of liquidity. This has left many residents without sufficient cash for basic necessities.

The risk of a communications blackout

The reliance on digital financial systems has created a new layer of vulnerability for the population. Because many people have been forced to rely on mobile banking due to the lack of physical currency, there is a profound fear regarding the stability of telecommunications. If the government or combatants were to cut off communication networks, residents would be left without any means of accessing funds, creating a humanitarian crisis that extends beyond the immediate reach of artillery and gunfire.

How does this compare to the 2020–2022 civil war?

The current tensions represent a potential return to one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century. The previous war, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, was ended by an African Union-brokered peace deal, but both the federal government and Tigrayan authorities have recently accused one another of violating the terms of that agreement.

The scale of the previous conflict was immense. According to the AU's mediator, the war resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths and pushed the entire region to the brink of famine. The memory of that devastation looms large over the current escalation, as the rapid formation of new alliances and the seizure of strategic assets suggest a similar pattern of high-intensity warfare.

FAQ: Ethiopia fighting

What is the current status of the fighting in Tigray?

The situation is highly volatile and characterized by reports of fresh clashes between the Ethiopian army and Tigrayan forces. While the army claims to have repelled attacks in the Amhara region, the TPLF has seized control of three airports, and fighting is reportedly spreading into the Afar region.

Has the TPLF formed any new alliances?

Yes, the TPLF announced on Sunday that it has formed an alliance with six other armed groups. This coalition is specifically aimed at ousting the current federal government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, significantly increasing the political and military stakes of the conflict.

What is the impact on travel and aviation in the region?

Travel to Tigray has been largely suspended. Following the TPLF's seizure of several airports from federal police, Ethiopian Airlines cancelled all flights to the region. This has effectively isolated Tigray from the rest of the country's commercial aviation network.

How are civilians in Mekelle faring?

Residents in Mekelle report a state of high stress and a sense of living under a curfew. While some claim the city itself has not seen the direct urban combat seen in previous years, the population is suffering from severe economic distress and a lack of available cash.

What caused the breakdown of the previous peace deal?

While a specific single event is not cited, both the federal government and Tigrayan authorities have spent recent months accusing each other of violating the African Union-brokered peace agreement that ended the 2020–2022 war, leading to the current escalation.