Why has fighting broken out in Tigray again?
The recent outbreak of violence is the result of more than six months of deteriorating relations between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). While the 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended a devastating two-year war, it left several fundamental issues unresolved, creating a vacuum that has now been filled by military mobilization. Both sides are currently trading blame for the latest escalation: the TPLF claims it is responding to a federal offensive involving drone strikes, while the government asserts that Tigrayan forces initiated the conflict by seizing control of regional airports.
The current instability is compounded by a breakdown in essential services. In a region that has transitioned into a largely cashless society because ATMs have been non-functional for months, the disruption of internet and telecommunications services has prevented residents from accessing funds via digital applications. This has led to reports of panic buying as citizens fear a return to the total isolation experienced during the previous conflict.
The breakdown of the Pretoria Agreement
The peace deal brokered by the African Union was intended to stabilize the region, but it failed to address the deep-seated structural grievances that continue to drive the conflict. Specifically, the disagreement over the administration of Tigray and the level of autonomy the region should exercise has created a cycle of mistrust. The federal government's attempts to influence local governance through an interim administration were met with resistance, leading the TPLF to eventually disband the federally-appointed body and restore its pre-war administration. This political friction has directly impacted the economy, as the cessation of civil service payments has caused essential services to seize up.
What are the primary drivers of the renewed conflict?
Four critical issues remain at the heart of the tension, with territorial disputes and disarmament being the most volatile. The most significant geographic flashpoint is western Tigray, a fertile area that was seized by Amhara forces during the initial stages of the 2020 war. The TPLF demands the return of this territory and the repatriation of hundreds of thousands of displaced ethnic Tigrayans, whereas the federal government maintains that the region's status must be decided through a formal referendum.
Disarmament remains another insurmountable hurdle between the two parties. The Ethiopian government has accused the TPLF of failing to comply with the peace terms, alleging that the group has only surrendered obsolete weaponry while concealing modern arms. This perceived lack of transparency has fueled the federal government's decision to utilize military assets, including drones, to target what it describes as Tigrayan military positions. Conversely, local reports indicate that these strikes have impacted civilian infrastructure, such as schools, which residents claim are being targeted despite their use by military forces during previous hostilities.
How has the TPLF's political position changed?
The TPLF has moved from a position of relative political isolation to becoming a central component of a new, broader opposition movement. In September, the group joined several other armed factions to form the 'Alliance for Survival.' This coalition is significant because it brings together groups that were once bitter enemies, including the Amhara-based Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army. While these groups possess vastly different regional interests and historical grievances, they are united by a singular, overarching objective: the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government from power.
This alliance represents a major strategic shift for the TPLF. Having felt surrounded and isolated during the 2020 conflict—a war that the African Union mediator estimated resulted in approximately 600,000 deaths—the TPLF is now seeking to ensure it is never again caught in a similar position of encirclement. However, political analysts warn that the Alliance for Survival is a marriage of convenience that may be difficult to sustain, as the long-term interests of the Fano and Oromo groups may eventually clash with those of the Tigrayan leadership.
What is the government's stance and the role of Eritrea?
The Ethiopian federal government views the formation of the Alliance for Survival as a direct attempt to destabilize the nation. In addition to blaming the TPLF for the recent combat, Addis Ababa has accused Eritrea of providing support to armed insurgent groups within Ethiopia's borders. While Asmara has denied these allegations, the historical relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea remains a critical factor in the regional security architecture.
The geopolitical tension is further complicated by Ethiopia's status as the world's most populous landlocked nation. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has recently signaled a more assertive stance regarding maritime access, hinting at the potential use of force to secure ownership of the Eritrean port of Assab. This ambition creates a dangerous feedback loop: as Ethiopia seeks to expand its influence to secure economic survival, it risks provoking Eritrea into intervening in Ethiopia's internal conflicts, potentially turning a domestic civil war into a regional conflagration.
What are the risks of a wider regional conflict?
There is a substantial risk that the fighting will expand beyond the borders of Tigray, potentially engulfing the entire Horn of Africa. The conflict has already breached into the Afar and Amhara regions, and the Ethiopian government is simultaneously managing active insurgencies in Oromia. The involvement of the new armed alliance increases the likelihood of a multi-front war that could overwhelm federal resources.
External actors could further escalate the crisis. The possibility of Eritrean intervention remains high, and the differing allegiances of various actors in the ongoing Sudanese civil war could pull more neighboring states into the fray. International bodies, including the African Union, the United Nations, and IGAD, have all issued urgent calls for a cessation of hostilities and a return to dialogue, but the current level of mutual distrust makes a diplomatic breakthrough increasingly difficult to achieve.
Frequently asked questions
What caused the recent fighting in Tigray?
The fighting stems from a breakdown in the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Tensions escalated over disagreements regarding the disarmament of TPLF forces, the governance of the Tigray region, and unresolved territorial disputes in western Tigray. Both sides have accused the other of initiating the latest military strikes.
Who is involved in the new Alliance for Survival?
The Alliance for Survival is a coalition of armed movements including the TPLF, the Amhara Fano militia, and the Oromo Liberation Army. Although these groups have different regional goals, they are currently united by their shared objective of removing the current federal government from power.
Why is the western Tigray territory so contentious?
Western Tigray is a fertile area that was transferred to the Amhara region following the 1991 redrawing of boundaries. During the recent civil war, Amhara forces seized control, displacing hundreds of thousands of ethnic Tigrayans. The TPLF seeks its return, while the government proposes a referendum.
How has the conflict affected the local economy?
The conflict has caused severe economic disruption, particularly due to the lack of banking services. Since ATMs have been non-functional for months, the disruption of internet and phone services has prevented people from using digital payments, leading to panic buying and extreme financial hardship.
Is there a risk of Eritrea joining the war?
Yes, there is a significant risk. The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea of supporting armed groups, and the relationship between the two nations is strained by disputes over Red Sea port access. Eritrea's involvement could transform the internal Ethiopian conflict into a broader regional war.
